Airplane Market Forecast

I have been recently surfing around Boeing and Airbus webpages, trying to take a look to the different global market forecast of both companies, from my point of view results are very optimistic at Boeing and slightly conservative at Airbus.

The report from airbus is very interesting and the methodology highly detailed, I recommend spend some time to read it. Seems to be a model with a lot of historical improvements within and very mature, including in the model economic grow, travel needs from consumer, urbanization of population (especially at developing countries) and ending with airport analysis. However, I've got some remarks to the model that has been developed along years at Airbus:

•  Low cost airlines at Europe are still in growing mode. Going to page 86 of Airbus report, it can be seen how from a low market share they have reach the level of 50% and are still growing. Moreover, global market is growing in such direction like AirAsia (with around 60 airplanes has already put in place a big order of 200 NEO) and LionAir (is increasing from 80 with 200 MAX). It doesn't seem that these structural changes in the airlines business model are not considered, as will create in the future a higher relative demand at single aisle segment, with reduction of hub oriented travelling.
• At 1992 European Union's deregulation create an important grow of new low cost airlines, the example is the important grow of Ryanair from 90s, however, their actual grow was notable during early 2000s. As EU-US Open Skies treatment was signed in 2007 I would expect that some airlines will position themselves in low cost model but flying between both continents requiring bigger airplanes than traditional low cost airlines. On top, there's a tendency of deregulation across the world, apart from EU and US. Relative grow of wide bodies is also expected.
• Recently, airlines are in a process of consolidation (10 years to now... recent for airplane industry), the fall of national airlines... pressure on prices over both competitors shall be also considered. Lower price, higher number.
• Finally, Airbus is moving to VIP airplanes, Corporate Jetliners and Military ones (refuelling MRTT), but noting is included about these segment on the airplane forecast.

All previous comments can be added as potential scenarios, the document is just showing a single scenario, my remarks can be included in optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.

As a conclusion, I would say that the report is very interesting and seems to include years of experience on it. Airplane industry is growing at a single digit factor, far from internet business like Smartphones, but still is one of the biggest sectors in the world economy and clearly a technology driver.